The effect of self-selection bias on the testing of a stock price reaction to management's earnings forecasts

This study examines the inferential bias due to the failure to control for self-selection when studying the market's reaction to management earnings forecasts. The analysis is conducted by controlling for self-selection and comparing the results to those obtained when self-selection is not controlled. This comparison suggests that the overall inference of a market reaction to the management forecast issuance does not change. However, the statistical significance declines when self-selection is considered. Since the issuance of a management forecast is an obvious self-selection, the results of this study suggest that self-selection should be considered and evaluated in quasi-experimental studies in accounting and finance.     

Valuation and incentive effects of hurdle rate executive stock options

Traditional executive stock options are often criticized for inherently weak links between pay and performance. Hurdle rate executive stock options represent a viable improvement. However, valuing these options presents extraordinary analytic difficulties. With a constant dividend yield the strike price becomes a path-dependent function of the stock price and exact analytic valuation is intractable. To solve this problem, we apply the Monte Carlo valuation approach developed by Longstaff and Schwartz (Rev Financ Stud 4:113–147, 2001) to estimate the value of path-dependent American options. We also extend the methodology to incorporate the theoretical framework by Ingersoll (J Bus 79:453–487, 2006) to permit subjective valuation influenced by an executive’s risk aversion.

Dividend decisions in the property and liability insurance industry: mutual versus stock companies

This article examines the effect of organizational forms on corporate dividend decisions by exploring the differences in dividend payout ratios between mutual and stock property–liability (P–L) insurers in the US. Our large sample evidence suggests: (1) mutual insurers tend to have a lower dividend payout ratio than stock insurers and the observed difference is about 4% points, holding other factors constant; (2) mutual insurers tend to adjust dividend payout ratios toward their long-run target levels more slowly than stock firms. These results are consistent with the capital constraints and/or greater agency costs of equity in mutual insurers.

Do German security analysts herd?

We employ an innovative methodology suggested by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80:657–675, 2006) to examine the herding (or anti-herding) behavior of German analysts regarding earnings forecasts. This methodology avoids well-known shortcomings often encountered in related studies, such as correlated information signals, unexpected common shocks to earnings, systematic optimism or pessimism, or forecast target mismeasurement. Our findings suggest that German analysts anti-herd, that is, they systematically issue earnings forecasts that are further away from the consensus forecast than their private information indicates. Furthermore, we analyze the association between herding behavior and different characteristics, including the size of the brokerage, general or firm-specific experience, and the coverage of firms on the Neuer Markt. We mainly confirm findings for the United States, for example, that anti-herding is more severe in cases of higher competition among analysts. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we also find anti-herding behavior in earnings forecasts for Neuer Markt firms during the “new economy” bubble.

全球化视野下金融集团监管的合作与协调

金融集团是二十世纪80年代以来发展起来的一种创新组织形式,在经济全球化背景下面临由复杂组织结构及集团内部交易等问题引起的特定风险。"金融集团联合论坛"自成立起来,先后发布多项旨在监督金融集团稳健运营的文件,以切实加强对多元化金融集团的监管。欧盟理事会发布的"监管指令"消弭了欧盟对金融集团监管的重复、脱节现象,使欧盟监管由行业监管向跨行业监管、由机构性监管向功能性监管的方向过渡。     

Agency problems in tracking stock and minority carve-out decisions: Explaining the discrepancy in short- and long-term performances

Several studies have evaluated short- and long-term performances of parent firms who resort to restructuring via tracking stock or minority carve-out. Results show that short-term positive performance of restructuring parents turns negative in the long haul. Although researchers have attempted to resolve this inconsistency, a satisfactory explanation is yet to emerge. In this paper, we offer the self-serving behavior of restructuring parents’ managers as a potential explanation for the observed discrepancy in the short- and long-term performances. We argue that managers of parent firms create new units to receive additional compensation packages. We present evidence that the long-term negative performance can be attributed, at least partially, to self-awarded raise. Since managers of tracking stock parents enjoy a greater degree of managerial discretion and controls, we hypothesize that they would pay themselves a bigger compensation package than their carve-out counterparts and their long-term performance would be inferior to that of the latter group. Our results largely support these hypotheses.

消费者在反垄断中的作用及政府角色的转换:基于中国房地产行业的研究

过去的反垄断研究主要集中于政府规制,消费者的作用被长期忽视。本文从中国房地产行业的实际情况出发,提出了新的反垄断理论,认为"消费者价格同盟"的存在和加强可以对垄断厂商起到很大的制约作用,而政府在这一过程中应当转换角色,从规制者转变为信息的提供者或监督者,以实现社会福利最大化或损失较小。     

农村合作医疗制度研究综述

新型农村合作医疗制度(以下简称"新农合")建设是关系到农村医疗卫生保障可持续发展的重大问题,文章简要回顾了试点以来新农合制度建设理论研究及实践的进展,归纳了理论界在新农合制度建设的必要性研究、新农合制度的现状及存的问题、农民参合意愿影响因素研究、新农合制度建设的路径研究和农村合作医疗制度建设的国际经验研究等五个方面的研究进展,并对这些研究做了简要的评述,指出农民参合意愿是新农合制度可持续发展的关键,也是新农合制度效率的最好反映。     

樊纲的经济思想——转型理论:改革的政治经济学

樊纲认为改革不是简单的政府决策,而是一个社会内生的、整个社会共同选择的过程。经济体制改革从本质上来说是经济社会中各利益集团的利益相互冲突、其相互关系不断发展、调整的"博弈"过程。中国之所以选择渐进式改革,是由于改革旧体制阻力较大,即无法进行存量改革时,先通过增量改革来发展新体制。随着增量改革的积累,逐步改革整个经济的体制结构,为"存量"的最终改革创造条件。     

The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors’ stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market

This paper uses the perfect market segmentation setting in China's stock market to compare the information content of the stock trades of domestic and foreign investors. We study 76 firms that issue both A-shares (for domestic investors) and B-shares (for foreign investors) and compare the price discovery role of the two segmented markets in China. Before Feb 19, 2001, the A-share market led the B-share market in price discovery, as the signed volume and quote revision of the A-share market had strong predictive ability for B-share quote returns, but not vice versa. After Feb 19, 2001, because some domestic investors were allowed to invest in the B-share market, we find evidence for a reverse causality from the B-share to the A-share market. Nevertheless, the [Hasbrouck (1995). One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199.] information share analysis reveals that A-shares continue to dominate the price discovery process.